Della Bosca! - to the Back of the Line Please!

The news that John Della Bosca might be making a move for the Premiership has surprised me, and I would be surprised if the plan is advanced as media speculation suggests. Della’s aspirations for the top job have been part of routine speculation for some time and if he was in the Legislative Assembly when Morris Iemma resigned I have no doubt that he would be Premier now. 

As it is, he’s in the Upper House (Legislative Council) and would need to find a Lower House seat to contest and win before he could become Premier.  Regardless of speculation as to whether the Premier can be from the LC, the reality is that it would be almost impossible for that to be the case.  That’s the first hurdle. 

Secondly, he would need to be very sure that he had the numbers to displace Nathan Rees before having a go because adding to his risk, he would have to resign from the Legislative Council so as to contest an election for the Legislative Assembly.  Under that scenario he could end up with nothing – the ultimate political fizzer! 

Thirdly, Della Bosca is regarded as a smart politician and from what I have seen of him I would agree.  He knows that the ALP factions are more divided now than for a long time.  Not only would he have to be able to unite warring parties to get support; he would need to convince the electorate that he is worthy of support, particularly with the damage the Iguanagate Affair did to him.  Della is a good politician and given time he could probably convince the electorate about himself – I have my doubts though that they would easily embrace John and Belinda. 

I might be wrong but I can’t see this happening yet even though there seem few options acceptable to the Party.  Frank Sartor can never be written off either.  He certainly has his enemies and detractors but Sartor also has a track record of achievement and quite a few friends (political friends – not necessarily friends in the sense most people use the word) across the factions.  Those loyalties will no doubt further test Della's ability to get sufficient support. The only thing certain is that if Nathan Rees is to improve his popularity in the polls it will need to be on the back of Rudd and the Federal stimulus funding.  If that doesn’t work then we’ll see the outcome suggested by some from the Right – there will never be another Premier from the Left!  For some, the experiment will have failed, for others, the Plan will have worked!